Re: [sl4] What is the probability of a positive singularity?

From: Matt Mahoney (
Date: Mon Jul 21 2008 - 23:03:59 MDT

--- On Mon, 7/21/08, Scott Dickey <> wrote:

> What is your current estimate of the probability that
> humanity will survive to see a positive singularity?

Very near zero. The human mind is not advanced enough to observe a singularity or recognize advanced intelligence. How do you know that a singularity hasn't already occurred, and the world you observe is the result?

Also, "positive" depends on the evolved ethical system of the dominant life form at the time. The evolution of homo sapiens was a negative outcome for homo erectus. A gray goo accident would be a positive outcome for the nanobots that replace us.

-- Matt Mahoney,

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