Re: [sl4] What is the probability of a positive singularity?

From: Dagon Gmail (
Date: Tue Jul 22 2008 - 00:31:15 MDT

> What is your current estimate of the probability that humanity will survive
> to see a positive singularity?

I have been pondering, and discussing it with some people, and I have become
more and more personally convinced
that even though select groups of humans may experience benefit, for "short
periods" from a singularity, over all, a
singularity will be pretty damn traumatic for the vast majority of humans.
However... even that won't mean much.
The vast majority of humans may willingly endure the stress, or decide they
don't have any alternative than endure
the technological phase shift.

Plus, it won't end. I regard pre-singularity existence as a placid reality.
When a singularity happens, all natural
balance is instantly gone and you'll have constant waves of change sweeping
the world. You'll see every definition
of what it means to be human dissolve into this cataclysm like ice cubes in
boiling water. There will be shock
fronts of change sweeping people who have no clue. It is like people in deep
Africa, their traditions already upset by
the "recent" introduction of Kalashnikovs and RPG's, suddenly confronted
with very rugged and miniaturized 3D
virtual reality wearables that allows all functions of a modern PC network,
with many times the software programs
we have today. There will be violent stress between non-adopters, partial
adopters, early adopters, late adopters.
The flood of information, commerce, seduction, perversity, entertainment,
spam, raw insult, spirituality, dialogue
will overwhelm anyone, whether in the kalahari, or in Tokyo, on a nonstop
unabated pace.

And after that the actual Singularity will come, and that will be even more
bewildering. This is all completely
insane by any standard, and yes, it will sometimes feel like being in a
storm of flying Piranha's, naked, fast forward.

And yes, once it starts it just will not stop. It will take off and go on
and on. I cannot envision it, but I also can not
envision it attaining some sort of balance, status quo or tranquility. We
will long back for the age of innocence and

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