From: wiggin01@ftml.net
Date: Sat Jan 24 2004 - 13:30:57 MST
Regardless of the likelihood of what we think of as "the Singularity" or
a collapse occuring, I think this story illustrates the lack of
appreciation for change that is so common in the mainstream. We still see
very powerful and educated people planning important projects without any
respect for likely technological improvements. A good example is the
Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository debate:
http://www.npr.org/programs/atc/features/2002/july/yucca/
"Abe Van Luik and other Department of Energy scientists have spent
billions of dollars studying the mountain, and have created a computer
model to follow the flow of water to get an estimate of how much
radiation might be encountered by a local farmer 10,000 years from now.
... Skeptical geologists point out that it's hard to predict how much
rain will fall in Nevada 10,000 years from now."
It's also probably pointless to be predicting the damage to a wandering
farmer (never mind the likelihood that such a thing would exist that far
in the future) more than a hundred years in advance. I'd go so far to say
that if this is still a major concern to humanity at that point, we've
probably got a lot of more serious problems than that on our hands.
-Andrew
On Sat, 24 Jan 2004 13:41:49 -0500, "Thomas R Mazanec"
<tmazanec1@juno.com> said:
> Maybe yes, maybe no.
> It is as much a mistake to take the Singularity AS A FACT
> as it is to take the Fall of Civilization AS A FACT.
> Either could happen. It's even remotely possible that
> a Singularity will occur centuries of millennia after the Collapse
> and Recovery. It's also remotely possible that we will soon
> reach a Plateau and have neither outcome.
> I try to keep an open mind, although probabilities differ.
> I would say 49% Singularity, 49% Collapse, 1% Both and 1% Neither.
>
> On Sat, 24 Jan 2004 10:10:49 +0900 "Metaqualia" <metaqualia@mynichi.com>
> writes:
> > > > skull symbol or pointy rocks to keep future oil drillers away.
> > >
> > > Of course not putting it over an oil field, tempting source of
> > ground
> > > water, or minerals would also be a good start :)
> >
> > The point was: why would anyone 1000+ years from now drill for oil?
> > Don't
> > they have a better energy source? Won't oil already be depleted
> > (should be
> > in a few decades already).
> >
> > The deeper point was: the average individual thinks that our
> > civilization
> > will end, and after that, a new civilization will have to start from
> > scratch. They visualize an endless cycle of civilizations without
> > nano,
> > without ai, without falling meteorites. To them, "We found the
> > pyramids so
> > someone else in the future will find us" is a symmetrical,
> > aesthetically
> > pleasing, comforting thought. Never mind the internet, never mind
> > peta(?)bytes of electronic text to dig through, the future guys will
> > _not_
> > understand english, here the need for pictograms. Hey the egyptians
> > had
> > those cool thingies why not us :)
> >
> >
> > mq
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
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