Re: [sl4] giant planets ignation - one more existential risk

From: Samantha Atkins (
Date: Wed Dec 10 2008 - 20:30:52 MST

On Mon, Dec 8, 2008 at 2:24 PM, Alexei Turchin <>wrote:

> Every risk is worth considering, because we don''t know how small it
> is untill we calculate it.
> I estimate that probability of teoretical possibility of ignition of
> giant planet is arround 1 per cent.

On what basis? I estimate (with no basis but light knowledge of astronomy
and gravitational pressure for hydrogen to fuse) that this is at least
several orders of magnitude too high. If so then it is obvious we have
much more likely scenarios. Since our efforts and attention is finite it is
very important to put our efforts where they are most likely to be of help.

> And I estimate that chases of intended or occasional detonation of any
> planet is also 1 per cent for next several hundreds years

How does this detonation take place? Any planet, even one that is basically
rock like earth? By what means?

- samantha

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