Re: [sl4] What is the probability of a positive singularity?

From: B Ziomek (
Date: Tue Jul 22 2008 - 05:13:41 MDT

> Extremely unlikely.
> See
> The good news is that we need not worry about global warming etc.
> Anthony

I have to object to this. Let's say that at our current rate of progress a
singularity could occur in 20-25 years, a bit optimistic. Unfortunately,
Global Warming and other environmental problems are starting to have an
effect now. While I don't believe they will become disastrous (as in reduce
the average lifespan in the West significantly), it does seem extremely
likely that with the increase in living expenses and other such limiters of
economic activity climate change will slow down our rate of technological
advance. Hence, climate change seems likely to delay a singularity if the
world economy continues in its current state. I don't really have a problem
with your basic premise, but such a fatalistic outlook doesn't seem
As for the original topic, I'd agree with X. It completely depends on how
you define humanity, which is the only ambiguous term you did not define.

-Ben Ziomek-

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