Re: META: extracts from my survey responses (pre-emptive killthread)

From: Joel Pitt (
Date: Mon Sep 11 2006 - 14:53:50 MDT

Hi Chris,

While I appreciate your desire to share your answers and discuss them,
I also feel responsible for keeping the survey related traffic to a
minimum. The current discussion on the Ashkenazi question I think is
relatively okay, but a general discussion of the questions and answers
should wait until the results have been collated.

Hate to be a killjoy, but anyhow.


On 9/12/06, Chris Hibbert <> wrote:
> I thought a few of my answers were interesting, since they seem to
> contrast strongly with most of what people talk about here and elsewhere
> when considering the shape of the future. Questions 9-11 ask about the
> shape of the singularity. The fact that the survey asks about science
> fiction made me think my answers to Q14-15 might be of interest here.
> You can find out more about the LFS (see below) at, or by
> writing to me.
> 9) When do you expect the "singularity" to occur? Pick a specific
> year, if your expectation is a range of years then respond with the
> average of the range (or, the year you think is most probable)
> I don't think the singularity will be visible, before or after. I
> believe that scenarios more like Stiegler's "The Gentle Seduction" are
> more likely: a continuous sequence of changes, each a hurdle at the
> time, but inconsequential compared to the next change, and unthought of
> before the previous change.
> 10) How hard a take-off to you "expect"? Please characterise the
> duration between clearly-below-human AI and
> clearly-above-current-human intelligence.
> G) Years
> 11) What do you expect the greatest existential threat will be before
> the singularity?
> runaway nanotech; gray goo (but even this is low-probability)
> 14) Where are you on the political compass?
> Pure libertarian
> 15) Are you an avid sci-fi fan?
> Yes, and president of the LFS, which gives annual awards for libertarian
> Science Fiction.
> Chris
> --
> It is easy to turn an aquarium into fish soup, but not so
> easy to turn fish soup back into an aquarium.
> -- Lech Walesa on reverting to a market economy.
> Chris Hibbert
> Blog:
> Prediction Market Software

"Wish not to seem, but to be, the best."
                -- Aeschylus

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