META: extracts from my survey responses

From: Chris Hibbert (
Date: Mon Sep 11 2006 - 14:33:29 MDT

I thought a few of my answers were interesting, since they seem to
contrast strongly with most of what people talk about here and elsewhere
when considering the shape of the future. Questions 9-11 ask about the
shape of the singularity. The fact that the survey asks about science
fiction made me think my answers to Q14-15 might be of interest here.
You can find out more about the LFS (see below) at, or by
writing to me.

9) When do you expect the "singularity" to occur? Pick a specific
year, if your expectation is a range of years then respond with the
average of the range (or, the year you think is most probable)

I don't think the singularity will be visible, before or after. I
believe that scenarios more like Stiegler's "The Gentle Seduction" are
more likely: a continuous sequence of changes, each a hurdle at the
time, but inconsequential compared to the next change, and unthought of
before the previous change.

10) How hard a take-off to you "expect"? Please characterise the
duration between clearly-below-human AI and
clearly-above-current-human intelligence.
G) Years

11) What do you expect the greatest existential threat will be before
the singularity?
runaway nanotech; gray goo (but even this is low-probability)

14) Where are you on the political compass?
Pure libertarian

15) Are you an avid sci-fi fan?
Yes, and president of the LFS, which gives annual awards for libertarian
Science Fiction.


It is easy to turn an aquarium into fish soup, but not so
easy to turn fish soup back into an aquarium.
-- Lech Walesa on reverting to a market economy.
Chris Hibbert
Blog:  Prediction Market Software

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