From: Peter de Blanc (peter.deblanc@verizon.net)
Date: Fri Jan 27 2006 - 17:31:57 MST
On Fri, 2006-01-27 at 17:07 -0600, Herb Martin wrote:
> > Something fun you could try is to sit down with a calculator
> > and Google,
> > and optionally a friend, and play Bayescraft: think of a
> > question with N
> > possible answers, assign a probability to each, and check the
> answer.
> > Multiply your cumulative score by the probability you assigned to
> the
> > correct answer. Alternatively, one player can write down a sequence
> in
> > binary, and the other players can predict the next value.
>
> What's the purpose of this? (Not being critical, but
> merely sincerely curious...)
To be well-calibrated. For example, if you report that you are "90%
sure" of the occurrence of 1,000 different events, then about 900 of
these events should occur.
If you are good at estimating probabilities, you can actually apply
decision theory.
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