From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (email@example.com)
Date: Fri Jan 27 2006 - 12:30:08 MST
H C wrote:
> 4. Given a coin is flipped 10 times
> What would you guess your odds of hitting tails are next round?
This question is philosophically interesting, in that the given sequence
of heads was not actually generated by a fair coin, but by an author who
was deliberately choosing heads. I think it is legitimate to refuse to
answer questions predicated on large improbabilities unless and until
the scenario comes up in real life.
Given that a fair coin is flipped 50 times and comes up
what would you guess as your odds of getting tails next round?
The answer, of course is:
On the given hypothesis, this scenario ain't gonna happen.
-- Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/ Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Mon May 20 2013 - 04:01:03 MDT