From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Fri Jan 27 2006 - 12:30:08 MST
H C wrote:
>
> 4. Given a coin is flipped 10 times
> HHHHHHHHHH
>
> What would you guess your odds of hitting tails are next round?
This question is philosophically interesting, in that the given sequence
of heads was not actually generated by a fair coin, but by an author who
was deliberately choosing heads. I think it is legitimate to refuse to
answer questions predicated on large improbabilities unless and until
the scenario comes up in real life.
Given that a fair coin is flipped 50 times and comes up
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
what would you guess as your odds of getting tails next round?
The answer, of course is:
On the given hypothesis, this scenario ain't gonna happen.
-- Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://intelligence.org/ Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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