From: Damien Broderick (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Date: Fri Jan 27 2006 - 12:47:02 MST
At 11:30 AM 1/27/2006 -0800, Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:
>H C wrote:
>>4. Given a coin is flipped 10 times
>>What would you guess your odds of hitting tails are next round?
>...I think it is legitimate to refuse to answer questions predicated on
>large improbabilities unless and until the scenario comes up in real life.
But that's going to happen roughly once in every 1000 such sequences, so
it's by no means impossibly rare. (This, after all, is one of your/the
common arguments against the proffered evidence for psi.)
>Given that a fair coin is flipped 50 times and comes up
>what would you guess as your odds of getting tails next round?
>The answer, of course is:
> On the given hypothesis, this scenario ain't gonna happen.
Okay, but that wasn't the question posed.
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