Re: 10x?! (was guaranteeing Friendlyness)

From: Ben Goertzel (
Date: Mon Dec 05 2005 - 09:59:51 MST

I'm not in the business of trying to extrapolate improvements in hardware.

My point was that my projections about when a
Singularity-launch-capable Novamente could be created (given adequate
funding for the project) did not assume more than a 10-fold increase
in computing power over the next 10-15 years.

In fact they don't strictly assume ANY increase in computing power,
but the 10-fold increase would be nice in order to bring the cost of
fulfilling the computing requirements down.

I am almost certain that a human-level self-modifying AGI could be
created with a few thousand machines right now, and I think it might
be possible to get by with a few hundred if one paid enough attention
to optimization. Based on these (admittedly rough) estimates, a
tenfold increase in computer power would bring human-level AGI into
the domain of relatively easy affordability.

-- Ben G

On 12/5/05, Michael Vassar <> wrote:
> Ben: Why would you only extrapolate 10-fold improvements in computing
> hardware. Things could slow down a bit, especially due to heat dissipation
> problems, but 100-fold over 15 years still seems very conservative.
> Kurzweil would say to expect 40,000-fold improvements. How much does the
> difference matter?

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