Re: 10x?! (was guaranteeing Friendlyness)

From: BillK (
Date: Mon Dec 05 2005 - 10:33:59 MST

On 12/5/05, Ben Goertzel wrote:
> I'm not in the business of trying to extrapolate improvements in hardware.
> My point was that my projections about when a
> Singularity-launch-capable Novamente could be created (given adequate
> funding for the project) did not assume more than a 10-fold increase
> in computing power over the next 10-15 years.
> In fact they don't strictly assume ANY increase in computing power,
> but the 10-fold increase would be nice in order to bring the cost of
> fulfilling the computing requirements down.
> I am almost certain that a human-level self-modifying AGI could be
> created with a few thousand machines right now, and I think it might
> be possible to get by with a few hundred if one paid enough attention
> to optimization. Based on these (admittedly rough) estimates, a
> tenfold increase in computer power would bring human-level AGI into
> the domain of relatively easy affordability.

So if somebody let you have one of these you'd be happy?

96 processor deskside workstation, peak performance of 230 gigaflops,
running off a single electric plug.

Cost around 100,000 USD.
But big savings on data centre costs, power, space, rackmounts, air
conditioning, management, etc.


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