**From:** Ben Goertzel (*ben@goertzel.org*)

**Date:** Thu Sep 15 2005 - 15:37:01 MDT

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FYI,

Just to put the raven paradox to rest, I did a little poking around and

found a paper

http://fitelson.org/ravens.pdf

which does a quite nice job of addressing all the issues that intuitively

bothered me with the traditionally-cited Bayesian analyses of the Raven

paradox.

He shows why the traditional Bayesian arguments depend on unacceptable

assumptions, but then gives a pretty rigorous mathematical analysis based on

fairly minimal assumptions -- it's a nice paper. [In other words, he

criticizes probability theory "as traditionally deployed" in this context,

but does it well ;-) ] *This* kind of probabilistic argumentation is always

convincing to me...

-- Ben

*> -----Original Message-----
*

*> From: Ben Goertzel [mailto:ben@goertzel.org]
*

*> Sent: Thursday, September 15, 2005 4:15 PM
*

*> To: sl4@sl4.org
*

*> Subject: RE: Hempel's paradox redux
*

*>
*

*>
*

*>
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*>
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*> > > However, what frustrates me about the quote you cite, and
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*> your attitude,
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*> > > is that you seem to be denying that probability theory as standardly
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*> > > deployed is conceptually and logically erroneous in this case
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*> -- albeit
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*> > > the magnitude of its error is generally small.
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*> >
*

*> > I suppose the "as standardly deployed" leaves you an out. So, if you
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*> > like, I amend my request: Ben, stop dissing Bayesian
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*> probability theory
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*> > "as standardly deployed".
*

*> >
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*> > --
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*> > Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
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*>
*

*> Well, I won't promise that, but I'll definitely be more careful
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*> in doing my algebra before doing so again ...
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*>
*

*> It's probably time for me to overcome my habit of sending out
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*> hasty, half-thought-out emails while in the middle of boring
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*> conference calls ;-)
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*>
*

*> ben
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*>
*

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