Re: The Relevance of Complex Systems [was: Re: Retrenchment]

From: Phil Goetz (
Date: Thu Sep 08 2005 - 13:53:24 MDT

--- Wei Dai <> wrote:
> What about mathematics? I don't think we know how to do mathematics
> under a
> Bayesian framework, even with infinite computing power (since some
> In that post I used Goldbach's Conjecture as an example, but perhaps
> a
> better one is P!=NP, which is a mathematical conjecture with many
> more real
> world implications. I think most of us believe that P!=NP and act
> accordingly, but it's not at all clear how to relate this to Bayesian
> probabilities.

I think you would treat it the same way you'd treat any other
proposition. You wouldn't have to analyze it mathematically;
you'd just take what some smart mathematicians said would be
the consequences of P=NP, or P!=NP, and make observations (e.g.,
one observation for every person who has tried to make a P
algorithm for an NP problem and failed), and revise your
beliefs accordingly.

- Phil Goetz

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