**From:** Phil Goetz (*philgoetz@yahoo.com*)

**Date:** Thu Sep 08 2005 - 13:53:24 MDT

**Next message:**Richard Loosemore: "Quick Clarification"**Previous message:**Phil Goetz: "Evolution vs. design"**In reply to:**Wei Dai: "Re: The Relevance of Complex Systems [was: Re: Retrenchment]"**Next in thread:**Eliezer S. Yudkowsky: "Re: The Relevance of Complex Systems [was: Re: Retrenchment]"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

--- Wei Dai <weidai@weidai.com> wrote:

*> What about mathematics? I don't think we know how to do mathematics
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*> under a
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*> Bayesian framework, even with infinite computing power (since some
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...

*> In that post I used Goldbach's Conjecture as an example, but perhaps
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*> a
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*> better one is P!=NP, which is a mathematical conjecture with many
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*> more real
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*> world implications. I think most of us believe that P!=NP and act
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*> accordingly, but it's not at all clear how to relate this to Bayesian
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*> probabilities.
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I think you would treat it the same way you'd treat any other

proposition. You wouldn't have to analyze it mathematically;

you'd just take what some smart mathematicians said would be

the consequences of P=NP, or P!=NP, and make observations (e.g.,

one observation for every person who has tried to make a P

algorithm for an NP problem and failed), and revise your

beliefs accordingly.

- Phil Goetz

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