basic BayesCraft training?

From: Psy Kosh (
Date: Mon Mar 14 2005 - 22:35:19 MST

Since advanced Bayesianisim/metalogic/etc is being thrown around
lately, figured I might as well ask a possibly stupid question that's
been on my mind:

How does one train themselves to this? What I mean is yes, I am
familiar with Bayes theorem, yes, I understand the idea, and if you
have be a list of probabilities, I could juggle them around just fine,
and would also know to do that instead of making some of the more
obvious mistakes...

But, other than those cases that one is explicitly handed the
probabilities on a computronium platter, how does one actually train
oneself to parse everyday life/thinking in terms of it?

ie, lots and lots of incoming info, not obvious to me how to
intuitively parse it into a form suitable for this type of reasoning.

So... to those who are learned in the Craft, I ask: how does one train
oneself to gain the appropriate intuitions? Does one practice
meditating on venn diagram "mandalas"? (I'm only half-joking here, I
really am stumped as to how to actually organize my mind for this)

I appologise if this isn't really an SL4worthy, but since the subject
seemed to be discussed lately anyways, and simply since I'd have no
clue where else to ask this... :)


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