Re: AI timeframes

From: Thomas Buckner (
Date: Fri Apr 09 2004 - 22:15:02 MDT

> > >
> > > Thus I project a range of 10-30 years in total
> from
> > > now.
> > >
> > > Daniel
> >
> I have seen enough history to conclude, that the US
> government has no other choice, than to start a
> Manhattan size SAI project, before someone else
> "launch
> a Sputnik" or something much, much more sinister or
> dangerous.
> Soon after 2008, if not even before that date, uncle
> Sam is going to join the game. The US federal
> government just can't be a late comer to the arena.
> Because this time will be no second chance to
> prevail,
> as it always was. (Pearl Harbor, space race, 9/11
> ...)
> What we are waiting for, is a Szilard like figure,
> who
> will be able to persuade some key politicians, that
> it
> is (maybe) a feasible thing. And that therefore,
> it's
> too risky to wait any longer. Less than 10 years
> after
> (what is approximately 2018), we will witness the
> result.
> It is nearly bound to happen - precisely this way.
> IMHO. And I have no problems with this scenario. On
> the
> contrary!

A likely 'Sputnik' source may be China. I was
rereading my copy of 'Everything You Know Is Wrong",
Russ Kick, ed., which contains an essay by the very
sharp Howard Bloom (author The Lucifer Principle and
Global Brain).
In the essay "Will This Be The Chinese Century?" Bloom
mentions in passing:
"But what are China's chances of actually outpacing
Bill Gates and America's other techno-leaders in the
sprint toward next-generation wonders? Very good
indeed. (...) Not to mention artificial intelligence -
where one investor feels Guangzhou's Hua Ling Group
'is a step ahead of foreign scientists.'"
Does anyone here know much about Hua Ling Group?
Google didn't tell me much except that Samsung may be
under the same parent company.
They're making some first-rate electronics over there
(I have a couple of Chinese-made Behringer audio
devices, a small mixer and a digital guitar effects
box. They cost little and do things that used to
require a cart load of pedals & such).


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