Re: AI timeframes

From: Thomas Buckner (
Date: Fri Apr 09 2004 - 22:31:58 MDT

--- "J. Andrew Rogers" <>
> The best bet is probably relatively secretive
> private research. It
> minimizes the pool of defectors and minimizes the
> risk of defection to
> the extent that such risks can be minimized.
> Outside individuals won't
> have much input on the process, but then I see very
> little good that
> can come of that unless one takes an improbably
> optimistic perspective.
> j. andrew rogers
I absolutely agree. As I noted in a couple of essays
Ben kindly hosted on his website last year, religious
meddlers will want to know whether this machine has a
soul. Given the current government, and likely future
trends in the public sphere, I anticipate they will
have the power and the intent to raid any AGI
development they do not control themselves, or any at
all, which might be seen as a challenge.

One can guess that the government (parts of it, in any
case) will be pushing for some sort of militarized AGI
which, by its very definition, is selectively
unFriendly toward individuals, groups or nations that
the government views as a threat; one may even
conjecture 'black budget' mil-AGI programs already in
The analogy here is to the Area 51/Skunk Works sort of
black programs where new aircraft are muttered about
and glimpsed by night for several years before their
presence is made public. The F-117A and B-2 emerged
from the shadows this way and there seems to be some
sort of hypersonic craft known as Aurora still in the
'officially doesn't exist' category.
A government AGI could reach an advanced stage without
ever leaving some building you and I will never see
the inside of.


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