How hard a Singularity?

From: Smigrodzki, Rafal (
Date: Fri Jun 21 2002 - 16:30:48 MDT

Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:

 Vernor Vinge's original stories of
> the Singularity were based around the blazing disruptive power of
> smarter-than-human intelligence

### You build your business plan on the idea of hard-takeoff Singularity. I
agree this is a prudent decision - the "slow" variant much less dangerous,
and would involve a huge number of contributors, with potentially less
opportunity for a small group to make a difference. It is reasonable to
concentrate on the most scary scenario, even if it isn't the most likely
one. While I also believe that the fast Singularity is a distinct
possibility, I don't have an intuition which would help me decide which
variant is more likely and by what odds.

What is your intuition? Is it a toss-up, a good hunch, or (almost)dead


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