RE: How hard a Singularity?

From: Smigrodzki, Rafal (
Date: Sat Jun 22 2002 - 14:12:40 MDT

 Eliezer S. Yudkowsky [] wrote:

Ben Goertzel wrote:

> I think the period of transition from human-level AI to superhuman-level
> will be a matter of months to years, not decades.

I suppose I could see a month, but anything longer than that is pretty hard
to imagine unless the human-level AI is operating at a subjective slowdown
of hundreds to one relative to human thought.

### I am exasperated by the lack of rigour in both of the above statements -
neither one refers to a clearly defined measure of "superhumanity" in
intelligence. I have a challenge for all - try to come up with a way of
quantifying what you mean here. The statement that it'll take a month from
HL-AI to SAI is trivially true - if the HL-AI is worth its electricity, it
*will* become superhuman in a month, but will it be superhuman enough to
make a difference?

No doubt there are many ways of quantifying intelligence, in terms of
absolute performance on standard tasks, in relation to other intelligences,
by the degree of comprehensibility of its thought/concept/percept content -
using almost any of them will make the discussion more interesting.


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