RE: Threats to the Singularity.

From: Ben Goertzel (
Date: Thu Jun 13 2002 - 11:35:12 MDT


I agree it's very unlikely anyone will piece together a seed AI in their
spare time *this year*.

However, as computers get faster and faster, and more and more useful AI
tools are built, the task will become easier and easier.

I have a seat of the pants estimate of the complexity of a seed AI, but Eli
and others may disagree, and I have no proof, just intuition.

I think we're talking about a few hundred thousand lines of C++ code, maybe
5-10 different specialized data structures, 10-20 different specialized
learning algorithms, and 100 configurable parameters altogether. Smaller by
far than the Windows OS, but vastly harder to debug and tune...

At any rate, if my Novamente approach works, this is roughly what we're
talking about.

Now, in 5-10 years, we may have an efficient functional language compiler,
we may have standard toolkits providing half of the specialized data
structures & learning algorithms, etc. That would reduce the size of the
task considerably.

Of course, we're hoping to get there well BEFORE 10 years, but Time Will

-- Ben G

> -----Original Message-----
> From: []On Behalf
> Of Aaron McBride
> Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 11:06 AM
> To:
> Subject: Re: Threats to the Singularity.
> At 10:47 AM 6/13/2002 -0500, you wrote:
> ><clip>
> >
> >#2. One of a vast number of midnight hackers who have been studying AI
> >design over the internet hack together the first real AI. The only way
> >for one of the AI development teams to beat the hacker is to do
> it before #1.
> > <clip>
> >Mike.
> >
> >
> I was under the impression that this is about as likely as someone being
> able to "hack together" a 747 in their back yard. Building Real AI is
> probably not simple (we'd probably have stumbled on it by now if it
> was). I doubt anyone will be hacking together a Real AI on their own
> anytime soon. Anyone have estimates of the complexity of a seed AI?
> -Aaron

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