From: Roko Mijic (rmijic@googlemail.com)
Date: Sat Feb 28 2009 - 18:53:18 MST
Sent from my iPhone
On 1 Mar 2009, at 00:30, Vladimir Nesov <robotact@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Sun, Mar 1, 2009 at 1:57 AM, Roko Mijic <rmijic@googlemail.com>
> wrote:
>>
>> (3) Today there are about 100 people in the world working on AGI in a
>> vaguely serious way, as far as I can tell, and we shouldn't hold our
>> breath for AGI any time soon unless much more good quality research
>> is
>> done. The number of implemented systems numbers about, well,
>> scratching the bottom of the barrel here, 4 that I can think of.
>> (Novamente, NARS, SOAR, ACT-R). For comparison, in my day job CS
>> research, there are about 50 implemented ontology mapping systems...
>>
>
> I won't look at it so optimistically. Machine learning is actually
> moving towards AGI, they just mostly don't realize it. ;-) As the
> inference algorithms and representations become more powerful, at one
> point they may produce something dangerous.
I'd bet 10:1 against that happening in the next 20 years, and 5:1
against non AGI research leading to AGI ever.
I doubt that ml research will lead to agi. I've done ml stuff, and I
have thought hard about how I think agi would work. Anyway, it's
late ...
Of course, this is based upon my own very limited knowledge of the
subject.
> And it's not 100 people,
> it's a mainstream effort.
>
> --
> Vladimir Nesov
> http://causalityrelay.wordpress.com/
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