From: Stuart Armstrong (dragondreaming@googlemail.com)
Date: Thu Feb 26 2009 - 03:40:13 MST
>> It doesn't lack for audacity, but I'm afraid it
>> somewhat lacks for sanity.
>
> Sorry, history is full of wildly optimistic projections about AI. If it were possible to solve a $1 quadrillion problem for only $1 trillion, we (who are collectively much smarter than you) would have figured it out long ago.
That's not Eliezer's point. He's taking issue with your contention
that AI is solveable for $1 quadrillion. It would be like Victorian
scientist in 1830 saying that "heavier than air flight is solevable
for such an amount" or "predicting the weather ten weeks in advance is
solveable for such an amount". We don't really have much of a clue of
the feasability of AI, so all these cost estimates are pretty much
guesswork.
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