From: Andrew Hay (andwhay@gmail.com)
Date: Mon Dec 08 2008 - 15:33:32 MST
How did you calculate such numbers? I'm interested in why you claim it to be
1, not say, 0.5 or 2 or 1/3 etc.
On Tue, Dec 9, 2008 at 11:24 AM, Alexei Turchin <alexeiturchin@gmail.com>wrote:
> Every risk is worth considering, because we don''t know how small it
> is untill we calculate it.
>
> I estimate that probability of teoretical possibility of ignition of
> giant planet is arround 1 per cent.
>
> And I estimate that chases of intended or occasional detonation of any
> planet is also 1 per cent for next several hundreds years
>
> So, the chanses of human extinction from given risk is around 1 to 10 000.
>
>
> On 12/8/08, Samantha Atkins <sjatkins@gmail.com> wrote:
> > How small a risk, even of something catastrophic, is small enough that
> it
> > isn't worth considering?
> >
> >
> >
> > On Sat, Nov 22, 2008 at 1:15 PM, Alexei Turchin <alexeiturchin@gmail.com
> >
> > wrote:
> >
> > > I wrote an essay about the possibility of artificial ignition of
> > > fusion reaction in gas planets like Jupiter and Saturn ( and in the
> > > Earth oceans also) which is small but serious existential risk.
> > >
> > > Giant planets ignition
> > > http://www.scribd.com/doc/8299748/Giant-planets-ignition
> > >
> >
> >
>
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