Re: [sl4] Unlikely singularity?

From: Norman Noman (
Date: Thu Aug 07 2008 - 05:24:56 MDT

On Thu, Aug 7, 2008 at 1:45 AM, Stuart Armstrong <> wrote:

> Unlike most people on this list, I don't think that the singularity is
> likely to happen, at least not anytime soon (in a nutshell, the reason
> is that I think that diminishing returns, and poorly phrased
> questions, will beat exponential feedback).
> However, I'm on this list because if a singularity does happen, it
> will be (of course) the most important transformation imaginable. So
> the importance getting involved is still very high, even if the
> singularity is unlikely.
> I was just wondering if there were other people like me on the list,
> and if this is a good audience to target. Basically by definition,
> this list self-selects those who believe a singularity is likely. I
> think we critically lack well informed people (I don't include myself
> in that list), who see a singularity as plausible, but unlikely. If
> there were some of these, we could better test the strength of the
> singularity arguments, against real opponents (and not against those
> who just wave their hands and say "that'll never happen!")

I also think the singularity is unlikely to work, but for very different
reasons. I think it already happened, not necessarily on earth, and our
world is a simulation, even a fiction. We don't seem to have been interfered
with much so far, but at some point that may change, and the singularity
seems likely to be that point. This has the potential to be a significant

I find it very difficult to estimate the likelihood of this, but even if
things go smoothly we are still a ship in a bottle, so I spend most of my
time in more fringe research looking for a way out.

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