[sl4] Unlikely singularity?

From: Stuart Armstrong (dragondreaming@googlemail.com)
Date: Thu Aug 07 2008 - 00:45:39 MDT

Unlike most people on this list, I don't think that the singularity is
likely to happen, at least not anytime soon (in a nutshell, the reason
is that I think that diminishing returns, and poorly phrased
questions, will beat exponential feedback).

However, I'm on this list because if a singularity does happen, it
will be (of course) the most important transformation imaginable. So
the importance getting involved is still very high, even if the
singularity is unlikely.

I was just wondering if there were other people like me on the list,
and if this is a good audience to target. Basically by definition,
this list self-selects those who believe a singularity is likely. I
think we critically lack well informed people (I don't include myself
in that list), who see a singularity as plausible, but unlikely. If
there were some of these, we could better test the strength of the
singularity arguments, against real opponents (and not against those
who just wave their hands and say "that'll never happen!").


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