What best evidence for fast AI?

From: Robin Hanson (rhanson@gmu.edu)
Date: Sat Nov 10 2007 - 04:26:23 MST

I've been invited to write an article for an upcoming special issue of IEEE Spectrum on "Singularity", which in this context means rapid and large social change from human-level or higher artificial intelligence.   I may be among the most enthusiastic authors in that issue, but even I am somewhat skeptical.   Specifically, after ten years as an AI researcher, my inclination has been to see progress as very slow toward an explicitly-coded AI, and so to guess that the whole brain emulation approach would succeed first if, as it seems, that approach becomes feasible within the next century. 

But I want to try to make sure I've heard the best arguments on the other side, and my impression was that many people here expect more rapid AI progress.   So I am here to ask: where are the best analyses arguing the case for rapid (non-emulation) AI progress?   I am less interested in the arguments that convince you personally than arguments that can or should convince a wide academic audience.

Robin Hanson  rhanson@gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Research Associate, Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323

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