Re: Simulation argument and Occam's razor

From: Byrne Hobart (
Date: Wed Aug 29 2007 - 12:04:12 MDT

> This too doesn't seem to be well-resolved. Say, there are two possible
> futures. Is it better to have mediocre results in both cases than to
> have a great result in one case and slightly worse result in another?
> Or equivalently: is it better to gamble under zero-sum conditions or
> not to?

But one constraint is that the more unusual a future result, the more
we should question it (all else being equal).

This usually applies if you're expected to pay some cost for the
future benefit (a free $5 is more likely than a free $5 million) and
the expected future is the result of someone else's analysis, not your

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