Re: Nonsingularitarian America and us

From: J. Andrew Rogers (
Date: Thu Aug 16 2007 - 00:40:40 MDT

On Aug 15, 2007, at 10:29 PM, Dagon Gmail wrote:
> There IS no rise of Islam in Europe. I live with my nose pressed
> flat on the
> entire topic and there are a few muslims living here and there in
> Europe, getting richer real fast, especially here in the
> netherlands and the UK.

It very much depends on the country. The Netherlands has about as
many muslims as the US as a percentage of the population. For
countries like France, it is quite a bit more than the US.

On the other hand, in the US the Islamic community is not prone to
acts religious murder (see: Theo Van Gogh in the Netherlands) nor
religious riots and violence (see: newspaper editorial cartoon in
Denmark) nor prone to large-scale fermentation of Islamic malcontents
(see: France). Hell, even the 9/11 disaster required importing
Islamic malcontents from the far side of the Atlantic. All the US
really has that is similar is fringe Christians, and those
individuals are rarely prone to newsworthy violence in practice.

> Second point - I believe the fundaments for a singularity are being
> created in
> Japan. Lots of robotics research there.

What does robotics have to do with the Singularity? Nothing that I
can see. The Singularity will almost certainly start in the US, on
the simple basis that it has an immense, established, and relatively
efficient infrastructure for doing this kind of research and
development that no other entity can currently compete with. This is
a matter of simple odds.

> America is losing the edge and
> chances are we will see a USSR-style collapse in the US a lot
> sooner than
> most people anticipate. Maybe within 10 years.

While the US may be losing its advantage in certain relative terms,
it still has an *enormous* advantage in practice. It is still the
high-tech entrepreneurial capital of the human universe for the
foreseeable future. By the time this changes in a significant way, I
would expect that we are way past the Sell By date on the Singularity.

The idea that the US will undergo a "USSR-style collapse" within 10
years is so out of touch with reality that it almost does not even
deserve comment. I think some trends in the US are bad, but even
then it is more a case of the US doing its level best to match some
of the existing poorer qualities of European governance.

J. Andrew Rogers

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