RE: Singularity Institute: Likely to win the race to build GAI?

From: pdugan (pdugan@vt.edu)
Date: Tue Feb 14 2006 - 10:30:55 MST


There is a certain list member who already has an AGI model more than half
implemented, making it a few years from testablility to see if it classifies
as a genuine AGI, and if so then maybe another half a decade before something
like recursive self-improvement becomes possible.

   Patrick

>===== Original Message From P K <kpete1@hotmail.com> =====
>>Yes, I know that they are working on _Friendly_ GAI. But my question is:
>>What reason is there to think that the Institute has any real chance of
>>winning the race to General Artificial Intelligence of any sort, beating
>>out those thousands of very smart GAI researchers?
>>
>There is no particular reason(s) I can think of that make the Institute more
>likely to develop AGI than any other organization with skilled developers.
>Itís all a fog. The only way to see if their ideas have any merit is to try
>them out. Also, I suspect their donations would increase if they showed some
>proofs of concept. Itís all speculative at this point.
>
>As for predicting success or failure, the best calibrated answer is to
>predict failure to anyone attempting to build a GAI. You would be right most
>of the time and wrong probably only once or right all the time (o dear,
>heresy).
>
>That doesn't mean it isnít worth trying. By analogy, think of AGI developers
>as individual sperm trying to reach the egg. The odds of any individual are
>incredibly small but the reward is so good it would be a shame not to try.
>Also, FAI has to be developed only once for all to benefit.
>
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