Re: Some considerations about AGI

From: Maru Dubshinki (
Date: Tue Jan 24 2006 - 23:20:19 MST

On 1/25/06, Marc Geddes <> wrote:
> Now, the IQ threshold for getting a phd is deemed to
> be around 125, and it usually takes a total of 5 years
> full-time study to bring someone up to phd level
> knowledge in a given specialty areas. Since there are
> 20 specialist subjects needed and each takes 5 years
> of full-time study to bring someone up to phd level
> knowledge, the conclusion is that it would take ONE
> HUNDRED YEARS (100 years) of full-time study for a
> single human to be competent to be a seed-AI developer.

This seems to be entirely too pessimistic and optimistic to me;
you seem to be assuming there is no overlap here-
if you obtain a PhD in mathematics, I think cognitive science and
computer science would go a lot faster than for someone without
any comparable background. Thus 100 years is too perssimistic.
But it will still take a long time, and given how quickly some of those fields
can advance, quite possibly by the time one finished all 20 or whatever,
a good deal with be completely outdated. You could try to keep up, but at the
end, could you keep up in 19 fields while obtaining a PhD in a 20th?

The point I guess I'm trying to get at is that it will take multiple people
to even begin to constitute a single "Seed-AI developer".


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