From: Keith M. Elis (zarathustra_winced@yahoo.com)
Date: Sat Jan 21 2006 - 08:02:11 MST
What would a likely AGI investor look like on paper? Given the lack of a clear development timeline (Hofstatder's Law applies, I think), this investor would be relatively young -- 45 or younger I would think. That gives him 30-40 years for the investment to pay off. Now, given the speculative nature of the investment, it will be a small fraction of this investor's available capital, and an even smaller fraction of his total net worth. Let's assume a modest, but still meaningful investment of $100,000. If this is 1% of his readily available capital (he is smart with money so doesn't bet the farm), that suggests an investor with $10M of capital. If this is 75% of his total net worth (the rest in real estate, stock options, etc.), that means we have a 45 year old worth $13.3M. How many 45 year olds are worth $13.3M? This would an interesting figure to see especially at the global scale. I believe the last Merrill Lynch world wealth report suggested there were about 70,000 people with a
net worth of $30M or more in the world. This is an age-blind figure. The same document said there were 7.6 million people worth $1M or more. So, $13.3M would fall somewhere between that.
The bottom-line is that we might be talking about an uncommon beast, this younger than 45 year-old worth $13.3.M. My bet would be that a large percentage of them would be Hollywood actors, sports figures, and other entertainment types. This is just a guess.
Keith
Mike Dougherty <msd001@gmail.com> wrote:
Having read the rest of the posts to date on this thread, my answer may not seem as technical..
I would respond:
Think of the smartest people you have ever met (or even heard about) and imagine if they could be convinced to work for you for the rest of your life. Suppose they can collectively solve any problem you give them in 5 years. Now consider that AGI can think orders of magnitude more quickly, does not have emotional disturbances due to stress or lack of progress, and never needs to sleep/eat/goof off. It solves what your smartest people did in 5 years within three weeks. What would you expect the ROI to be on a device like that? (perhaps removing any of the moral arguments of machine intelligence and proposing/selling the AGI as a machine which does exclusively _mental_ work)
If this millionaire businessman took even a nibble at this prospect, I might be inclined to ask, "Would you spend your money to build a machine that grants wishes or use it to look for a djinni bottle?"
Sorry I didn't use more acronyms :)
On 1/20/06, H C <lphege@hotmail.com> wrote: I have really seen hardly any discussion or exposition directly related to
the question of AGI investment, from a business standpoint (although I think
the AGIRI forum is a step in the right direction).
Say today is your lucky day, and you sat down next a millionaire businessman
on the bus and he asked you "Why should I invest in AGI?".
How would you respond? What makes a good response here? What are some major
things you would bring up in your answer?
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