**From:** Dani Eder (*danielravennest@yahoo.com*)

**Date:** Fri Jan 13 2006 - 05:12:46 MST

**Next message:**David Massoglia: "Singularity Institute Partnering"**Previous message:**turin: "Re: Everything I know is wrong"**In reply to:**Phil Goetz: "Re: Natural Boundaries of Exponential Grow"**Next in thread:**Damien Broderick: "Re: Natural Boundaries of Exponential Grow"**Reply:**Damien Broderick: "Re: Natural Boundaries of Exponential Grow"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

*> > As the first of this curves is growing faster, we
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*> can find a point in
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*> >
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*> > time where the
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*> > energy consumption would be greater than the
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*> maximal energy which can
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*> > be
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*> > used.
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*> > Therefore the technological progress has to slow
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*> down. Am I right?
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*> >
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*> > Regards,
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*> > Christian Zielinski
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*>
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*> Yep. I pointed this out on the extropians list
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*> maybe 13 years ago.
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*>
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*> - Phil Goetz
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*>
*

And Isaac Asimov pointed it out in a science article

long

before that. The article was discussing the limits on

the

'population explosion' of the latter 20th century,

when

the human population growth rate peaked. He

calculated

that at the then growth rate, human population would

in

6000 years be a solid mass of human bodies expanding

at the

speed of light.

The underlying point is that exponential growth will

eventually exceed

any polynomial growth, such as the volume of a sphere

expanding

at a constant speed. That's just simple mathematics.

If there is some resource that scales with volume that

you

need to use, like matter or energy content, then your

growth

rate will have to drop from exponential eventually.

If your

exponential growth rate is a fast one, you will hit

the limits

rather quickly.

One example is the trend of fastest human vehicle.

Projecting

the trend from 1903 to 1969 forward (Wright Flyer to

Apollo capsule), would have us reaching the speed of

light by mid-

21st century. That trend already broke, since in the

last

37 years we haven't got any faster.

Daniel

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**Next message:**David Massoglia: "Singularity Institute Partnering"**Previous message:**turin: "Re: Everything I know is wrong"**In reply to:**Phil Goetz: "Re: Natural Boundaries of Exponential Grow"**Next in thread:**Damien Broderick: "Re: Natural Boundaries of Exponential Grow"**Reply:**Damien Broderick: "Re: Natural Boundaries of Exponential Grow"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

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