From: T (tennessee@tennessee.id.au)
Date: Thu Nov 24 2005 - 17:04:41 MST
Climate is not much better understood than weather. There is certainly a
gentle correlation between CO2 levels and global temps, but there is not
understanding of the physics behind this. Explanations can be found, but
there are no detailed theories. Nobody knows the true mechanics here,
whether rising CO2 will eventually trigger a cooling, an ice age,
whatever. We're flying blind compared to, say, our understanding of how
a car works.
I don't understand why this has anything to do with the Singularity. Are
you suggesting that there is a similar correlation between Intelligence
and Friendliness that you can identify for us?
Cheers,
-T
Phillip Huggan wrote:
> Weather is not climate. Climate temperature changes are non-linear
> but not chaotic, even if we don't know 100% of the factors involved.
> When CO2 levels have historically risen, so have global temps. This
> line of reasoning applied in the context of a singularity would
> suggest it is okay to turn on an AGI of uncertain friendliness.
>
> */David McFadzean <davidmc@gmail.com>/* wrote:
>
> There is another possibility here. Perhaps Sununu ran his little
> program enough to gain an intuition into the chaotic nature of
> dynamical complex systems like weather simulations. He observed how
> small changes in the inputs and assumptions led to large changes in
> the results and (correctly) reasoned that running on a supercomputer
> isn't going to mitigate that problem. So he concluded that
> climatologists couldn't possibly ! know with any degree of certainty
> from running their own simulations whether global warming was going to
> happen.
>
>
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