**From:** Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (*sentience@pobox.com*)

**Date:** Wed Sep 14 2005 - 23:36:32 MDT

**Next message:**Marcello Mathias Herreshoff: "Re: Hempel's paradox redux"**Previous message:**Ben Goertzel: "Hempel's paradox redux"**In reply to:**Ben Goertzel: "Hempel's paradox redux"**Next in thread:**Marcello Mathias Herreshoff: "Re: Hempel's paradox redux"**Reply:**Marcello Mathias Herreshoff: "Re: Hempel's paradox redux"**Reply:**Ben Goertzel: "RE: Hempel's paradox redux"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

Ben Goertzel wrote:

*>
*

*> Anyway, if anyone feels like checking some interesting elementary
*

*> probability theory calculations, see:
*

*>
*

*> http://www.goertzel.org/new_essays/hempel.htm
*

*>
*

*> What I seem to have done there is to construct a simple case where there
*

*> seems to be no Hempel paradox according to elementary probability theory.
*

*> That is, I define a population of N entities containing at least one raven,
*

*> but where drawing a random nonblack entity from the population and observing
*

*> it to be a nonraven does not change one's rational estimate of
*

*> P(black|raven). Unless I made a calculational error, in which case I would
*

*> be curious to discover what it is ;-)
*

I find your lack of faith disturbing.

I've got to sleep now, so this is a fine opportunity for aspiring

probability theorists on SL4 to test their wings. Props for anyone who

points out flaws in Ben's reasoning before I write a response tomorrow.

These props are also available to Ben, but if he doesn't get it on his

own, and I have to write up the flaws myself, I want Ben to never again

claim that Bayesian probability is quote wrong unquote.

-- Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://intelligence.org/ Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

**Next message:**Marcello Mathias Herreshoff: "Re: Hempel's paradox redux"**Previous message:**Ben Goertzel: "Hempel's paradox redux"**In reply to:**Ben Goertzel: "Hempel's paradox redux"**Next in thread:**Marcello Mathias Herreshoff: "Re: Hempel's paradox redux"**Reply:**Marcello Mathias Herreshoff: "Re: Hempel's paradox redux"**Reply:**Ben Goertzel: "RE: Hempel's paradox redux"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

*
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5
: Wed Jul 17 2013 - 04:00:52 MDT
*