Re: Bad Bayesian - no biscuit! (was A New Year's gift for Bayesians)

From: Eliezer Yudkowsky (
Date: Thu Jan 20 2005 - 07:30:48 MST

Mike Williams wrote:
> Eliezer, what would you say afterwards, to that one person who actually
> won the lottery?

To prevent a selection effect - as of selective reporting by the media - I
would only speak to one randomly selected lottery *player* per day. If any
grand prize winners turned up, I guess I'd be kind of embarassed, but
fortunately that's not going to happen. Alternatively, if the lottery
winner really wanted to talk to me, he could pick people at random from a
pool of a hundred million, once per day, until he got to me, whereupon I
would speak to him.

This person is so rare that you are paying too much attention to him just
by asking that particular question.

Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

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