From: Marc Geddes (marc_geddes@yahoo.co.nz)
Date: Sun Apr 04 2004 - 01:15:21 MST
I'm posting a brief outline: this is a sketch of what
I'm thinking of putting on the web-site when I get one
up. Hopefully I can get this thing off the ground.
I'm the new player on the block in the race for AGI
and I'm making a big power play! ;) Watch the sl4
list for further news. Meantime comments or private
e-mails are welcome.
The Riemann Artificial Intelligence Institute
Mission Statement:
The Riemann Artificial Intelligence Institute aims to
research artificial general intelligence, with an
emphasis on developing software capable of reasoning
about mathematics. The long-term goal is to create
true artificial general intelligence in a computer
system.
True AGI would be AI with a general capacity for
learning exceeding that of a human. Smarter than
human intelligence could help solve problems and make
breakthroughs which would enormously improve the
quality of life for humanity. Such a thing is
regarded as possible by experts because our best
current scientific theories indicate that it is a
sensible proposition.
The shorter-term goals are to develop software which
can assist in solving problems in mathematics of
significance and propriety value. The purpose of the
shorter-term goals is to try to ensure results of
definite value to society and to secure sufficient
on-going interest and funding to achieve the long term
goal. Since mathematics is the language of science,
there is also the possibility that software capable of
reasoning about mathematics will be useful for
artificial general intelligence research.
The specific mathematical problem initially selected
to be attempted was 'The Riemann Hypothesis' (Named
after the great German mathematician Berhard Riemann).
Not only is this the most famous unsolved problem in
mathematics, a cash prize of $US 1 million is
currently being offered by the Clay Mathematics
Institute for its solution. A solution to the Riemann
Hypothesis could solve the deepest mystery of pure
mathematics - the secret to the distribution of prime
numbers - and provide insights of great value to the
mathematics community. It would also generate
enormous interest and result in immediate financial
reward to assist with further research. The reason
for thinking that success is a fair possibility is
that some experts feel that knowledge has progressed
to the point where a solution may not be far off, and
the computer-assisted approach is one which has been
neglected.
Plan and estimates:
Staff and budget:
The Institute aims for 5 full-time paid team members,
each of which would have a salary of $US 20 000 per
year (Total annual cost of team salary: $US 100 000).
This is obviously fairly low pay, but it's
sufficient. One of the team members would double as
the director. There could also be any number of
additional part-time team members, but these would
have to be volunteers.
The Institute aims for a budget of an additional $US
100 000 annually, in order to rent living space and
buy equipment.
Total annual budget: $US 200 000
This is probably the minimum budget required for a
full-time AGI project capable of getting anywhere.
Time frames:
The shorter-term goals of creating software capable of
deep mathematical reasoning would be expected to begin
yielding results within 2 years. A solution to the
specific 'hard problem' selected (the Riemann
hypothesis) could be to hand within 2-5 years.
Initial software design related to the problem could
take around a year of full-time research by the team,
and another 1-4 years of coding and refinements. Note
that on a budget of $US 200 00 per year, 5 years work
to solve the Riemann hypothesis would cost $US 1
million, which would be fully reimbursed upon payment
of the prize offered by the Clay Mathematics Institute
for the solution.
The longer term goal of true general artificial
intelligence in a computer system could take anywhere
from 2-50 years of full-time work. There are too many
unknowns to be able to estimate a more precise time
frame with any confidence. All one can really say is
that AGI will probably be achieved some time within
the next 50 years. A 'consensus' guesstimate by
experts is for AGI circa 2030. The task is thus
likely monumental, speculative and truly long-term.
More modest (slight irony!) goals such as software
capable of assisting in finding solutions to hard
mathematical problems such as the Riemann Hypothesis
are needed for a realistic chance of shorter term
usefulness. The Institute will have achieved
something if it can contribute but a little towards
the grand goal of AGI.
Institute Background
The Institute was born on 4th April, 2004. Its
founder was Marc Geddes, Free-Lance Writer,
Transhumanist and paid member of the WTA (World
Transhumanist Organization) since 2002. Transhumanism
is a rationalistic philosophy of the world advocating
the responsible use of science, technology and
critical thinking to improve the human condition.
Institute Status as of: 4th April, 2004
News of the Institute's founding was posted to the Sl4
(Shock Level 4) Mailing List. A dedicated web-site
has not yet been created on the World-Wide-Web. One
is being planned.
The Institute has no legal status.
The only person working for the Institute is Marc
Geddes. He has begun research pertinent to Artificial
General Intelligence, Pure Mathematics, and the
Riemann Hypothesis. This work is currently only
part-time and unpaid.
The Institute currently has no funding or physical
location. Businessmen and philanthropists in New
Zealand and Australia are being approached. A
physical location in Australia is preferred.
Other AGI Projects
Although 'Artificial intelligence' is a field which
now attracts large interest and a great deal of
funding around the world, circa 2004 there are few
projects which have the aim of achieving true
artificial general intelligence in a computer system.
True AGI would be AI with a general capacity for
learning comparable to humans or better. There are 3
main dedicated players (the names of the founders are
in brackets):
Singularity Institute (Eliezer Yudkowsky)
Artificial General Intelligence Institute (Ben
Goerztel)
Adaptive AI Inc. (Peter Voss)
The Riemann A.I Institute strongly supports the work
of the three named organizations. A wealth of
information about the long-term promises and perils of
AGI is available on the Singularity Institute web-site
and it is recommended that those interested in AGI
read the materials available there. Where possible,
the Riemann A.I Institute is prepared to donate funds
and other support to these projects.
=====
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