Re: 'Singularity Realism' - A few thoughts

From: Samantha Atkins (
Date: Wed Mar 10 2004 - 23:47:43 MST

On Mar 5, 2004, at 6:49 PM, Ben Goertzel wrote:

> I'll make a more controversial statement, though: I think that if the
> world WANTED a Singularity in, say, 5-8 years, it could quite possibly
> get it. A Manhattan-project-style attack on the AGI problem could
> potentially yield dramatic results in a 2-3 year period.... However,
> the powers that be do not seem to have a belief-system oriented in this
> direction at all, so this statement of mine is basically irrelevant in
> a
> practical sense.

Well, for an analogy to the Manhattan project to hold would require
that the government is at least as clear on what is achievable and the
likely way to get there as we were on producing an atomic bomb. I am
not at all sure that this is the case. Do you believe this much
clarity exists? If it does not then similar levels of resource and
effort focus would not necessarily be successful. It is possible but
I doubt it qualifies as "quite possible" yet. But you are closer (to
say the least) to the state of general understanding and focus on AGI.

I believe that that level of funding of some of the existing projects
that do have a pretty good idea of what they are about could succeed in
that timeframe. But I don't believe that government involvement would
result in the resources going to such groups at this time.


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