Re: [SL4] AI --> Jobless Economy

From: Tomaz Kristan (
Date: Fri Mar 05 2004 - 01:43:08 MST

On Thu, 04 Mar 2004 00:25:37 -0800, Aaron McBride wrote:

> Could any of this have to do with the leading edge of
> the baby boomers
> generation hitting retirement age?

They are retiring. But only those, who want to retire
early. And that can be a partial answer, yes.

> The size of the
> working age
> population could actually be dropping.

No, not at all. At my best knowledge, Mexicans do come
in US in large numbers. They alone are a significant
factor. They are after some work. And there are other
factors of the "working age population" enlargement,

> I do know that you can't rely
> on government
> unemployment figures

The special pools give this numbers. Independent
institutions can do, and actually do the same. The
result are the same.

> What's this have to do with SL4? Well, it would be
> good to know on a
> whole how we can expect the economy to behave over the
> next 20 years.

Absolutely. But not only that. It's the question, of
how much the general automatization has already took
the momentum.

> There is going to be a huge shift in the ratio of
> workers to retired
> persons over the coming decades unless we change our
> retirement system.

Maybe - just maybe - this process is already under way.
 People don't dare to see it yet. It's far too
optimistic, but -- I repeat -- numbers do show exactly
that. In US, of course. EU, Japan and the rest of the
world will follow.

> all), I'm not sure that a strong economy is the most
> important thing,
> especially a strong growing economy that might even
> quicken an
> unFriendly Singularity by bring nanotech to the masses

Agree. But at least, we will not have to deal with a
massive Ludism, in the near future, if this process I
am talking about, really is underway.

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