From: Dani Eder (danielravennest@yahoo.com)
Date: Fri Mar 07 2003 - 11:22:24 MST
> > Maybe the Singularity is the world at time T,
> incomprehensible to
> > anybody
> > T-X and T+X except for short periods of time + and
> - T. Unless the
> > Singularity is a purely technological event, but I
> don't think it is. I
> > think I wouldn't have any trouble at all with
> AD1200 technology, but
> > everything else would be a barrier.
>
We can define time periods for the purposes of
discussion as follows:
Near Future - most things are still more similar
to today than different (<50% change).
Far Future - most things are more different than
similar to today (>50% change).
Singularity - things are so different that prediction
is not useful (>95% change)
What many people believe is that the pace of change
will radically increase in the not too distant
future. This can be precipitated by AI's that
are smarter than us, or simply by the fast pace
of change in electronics spreading to the rest
of society. In that case, the Near/Far future
boundary may be only 5 years or less away from
the Singularity boundary.
It's the idea that the unpredictable future is
a generation or less away is what is different
from older science fiction and futurist thought,
where things were assumed to be not that different
over hundreds or thousands of years.
Daniel
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