From: mike99 (mike99@lascruces.com)
Date: Wed Sep 25 2002 - 18:51:33 MDT
Ben Goertzel wrote:
....
> My work on computational finance in the period 1997-1999 taught me that
> there is a LOT of structure out there in the world -- even the human
> socioeconomic world -- that humans do not perceive. Of course,
> this is old
> knowledge in the financial world, which is why such a huge
> percentage of the
> trading going on out there is program trading. But it's
> interesting to get
> a feel for such things at first hand.
>
> This underlies my intuition that, in the future, an AGI with
> human-level but
> nonhuman intelligence will be able to clean up on the financial
> markets. We
> may see laws emerging banning such activity, at some point. Though these
> laws may only hold for a short time, if the hard takeoff idea is right and
> human-level intelligence is rapidly followed by dramatically superhuman
> intelligence.
>
> -- Ben G
This reminds me of a panel session in the 2nd Artificial Life Conference
where Doyne Farmer and Norm Packard mentioned this financial trading system
possibility. That was in early 1991. A few months later, they started the
Prediction Company to develop financial analysis and trading systems.
I wonder what the world--our world, both natural and social--will look like
to an AGI that can perceive the deep structures which some humans are only
aware of some of the time, all humans are ignorant of most of the time, and
a few humans are ignorant of nearly all the time.
Perhaps we can get some idea of our true level of ignorance when we see even
our current partially-developed AI's, still simple genetic algorithms and so
forth, developing solutions to problems in finance and engineering that make
us say "Wow! I never would have thought of that trade/strategy/design!"
This is the core issue of my essay-in-the-works "Superintelligence and
Surprise."
Michael LaTorra
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