From: Christian L. (n95lundc@hotmail.com)
Date: Thu Aug 29 2002 - 14:54:02 MDT
Eliezer wrote:
>That's what the Bayesian Probability Theorem *is* - a *universal*
> >description of the way in which things can be evidence about other
> >things.
>It is not limited to any one domain. It is not limited to >deliberative or
>verbalizable thought.
>You must learn to see the BPT flowing underneath the surface of all
>cognition, like blood beneath skin.
Reading this, I looked up Bayes' theorem in my Probability Theory book, and
under the theorem itself, it was written: "Never has any theorem been
misused so much my so many".
I fail to see why anyone would hold this theorem so highly that he writes
poetry about it. In fact, I do not really think that you (Eli) really
understand the theorem. For instance, this example is given in my book on
elementary probability theory as a direct application of Bayes Th.:
**
In a land there lives two kinds of people: X and Y. Among the X:s, 80% are
tall. Among the Y:s, 1% are tall. The population in this country is 10% X:s
and 90% Y:s.
A tourist randomly meets a person, who happens to be tall. Use Bayes'
theorem to calculate the probability that this person is an X.
**
Can you (Eli) solve it? It ought not be a problem for someone who can "see
the BPT flowing underneath the surface of all cognition, like blood beneath
skin."
Regards,
Christian
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