**From:** Christian L. (*n95lundc@hotmail.com*)

**Date:** Thu Aug 29 2002 - 14:54:02 MDT

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Eliezer wrote:

*>That's what the Bayesian Probability Theorem *is* - a *universal*
*

*> >description of the way in which things can be evidence about other
*

*> >things.
*

*>It is not limited to any one domain. It is not limited to >deliberative or
*

*>verbalizable thought.
*

*>You must learn to see the BPT flowing underneath the surface of all
*

*>cognition, like blood beneath skin.
*

Reading this, I looked up Bayes' theorem in my Probability Theory book, and

under the theorem itself, it was written: "Never has any theorem been

misused so much my so many".

I fail to see why anyone would hold this theorem so highly that he writes

poetry about it. In fact, I do not really think that you (Eli) really

understand the theorem. For instance, this example is given in my book on

elementary probability theory as a direct application of Bayes Th.:

**

In a land there lives two kinds of people: X and Y. Among the X:s, 80% are

tall. Among the Y:s, 1% are tall. The population in this country is 10% X:s

and 90% Y:s.

A tourist randomly meets a person, who happens to be tall. Use Bayes'

theorem to calculate the probability that this person is an X.

**

Can you (Eli) solve it? It ought not be a problem for someone who can "see

the BPT flowing underneath the surface of all cognition, like blood beneath

skin."

Regards,

Christian

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