Re: How hard a Singularity?

From: Gordon Worley (
Date: Tue Jul 02 2002 - 13:36:30 MDT

On Tuesday, July 2, 2002, at 03:13 PM, Ben Goertzel wrote:

>> Second, the social behavior of overconfidence tends to be a side effect
>> of rational thinking.
> I doubt if this is generally true. I have not found, in terms of my
> daily
> experience, that more rational people tend to be more confident...

I think that this depends on your point of view and how your perceive
rationality. If we agree, you are unlikely to perceive me as being
overconfident (unless I am being excessively overconfident). If we
disagree, you are likely to claim that I am overconfident if you do not
full understand what I am talking about (possibly because I haven't
explained it adequately to you). Perceiving rationality is more
complicated. There are a variety of social behaviors that tend to be
identified as rational behavior (compromising, not talkative, modesty,
etc.), but these are just particular behaviors that may be rational (my
guess is that they tend to be the outcome of rational behavior more
often than other behaviors, but I have not spent a great deal of time
counting the number of times I acted a certain way). Even direct
questioning to get someone to generate answers that only a rational
thinker is likely to give does not guarantee that he is actually a
rational thinker (he may have an understanding of rationality content,
but has not become rational).

I may write more on this if it seems warranted. Right now I have to go
to class and fail a test (just kidding, I'll ace it).

Gordon Worley                     `When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty            said, `it means just what I choose                it to mean--neither more nor less.'
PGP:  0xBBD3B003                                  --Lewis Carroll

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