From: Ben Goertzel (ben@goertzel.org)
Date: Fri Jun 28 2002 - 18:11:44 MDT
> 5) Want to see The Singularity occur (but not so much as to cloud their
> reasoning)
...
> Ben:
> Fully satisfies the statements in #1, 2, 4, 6 and 7
> I don't have enough details (yet) to know if he only
> gets partial
> or full credit for statements #3 & #5.
Truthfully, #5 is my biggest reason for mistrusting my *own* judgment as
regards when to launch the Singularity (if indeed this decision should ever
come to me).
I do have these traits:
a) I want to see the Singularity *really really badly*
b) I'm a risk-taking kind of guy, personally
c) I tend towards overoptimism
d) Even after compensating for my overoptimistic character, the judgments I
come up with are usually *still* too optimistic ;->
Because of this I'm always going to have a "go for it" sort of bias, that's
just my emotional makeup.
Having noted my overoptimism, I never trust my own scheduling estimates, I
have my collaborator Cassio help me make my estimates more realistic ;)
Similarly (but in a vastly more serious context of course), if the choice of
whether to launch a Singularity comes up, I'm specifically going to want to
consult with people who are more pessimistic than I am. This is easy, since
most people are more pessimistic than I am!
Of course, this is not my only human weakness (far from it!), and far from
the only reason I think it will be very wise to consult with others should
such a decision come my way... but it's an important point. Having people
who have been lusting for a good Singularity for decades, balance the
dangers versus benefits of a given potential Singularity-initiating-event,
is definitely dangerous!
-- ben g
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