RE: How hard a Singularity?

From: Stephen Reed (
Date: Thu Jun 27 2002 - 08:51:05 MDT

On Thu, 27 Jun 2002, Ben Goertzel wrote:

> As for the trustworthiness and ethical-ness of the US military, I guess
> we're not likely to come to agreement, and there's no use to pollute SL4
> with a long discussion of military history from 2 perspectives.


> But if the progress from here to the human-level-AI phase is slower than I'm
> hoping/suspecting, you may be right. The US military has been by far the
> greatest funder of AI so far.

Yes, this summarizes my position:

1. I believe that the current government institutions funding AI are
sufficient to manage Seed AI development - and I trust them based upon
personal experience and observation.

2. I predict that regardless of sentiment expressed on this list,
(perhaps indicative of popular sentiment worldwide), that as evidence
mounts that an AGI is possible, then government institutions, especially the US
military research organizations will be the first to fund, and fund with
the most money - thus sponsoring the progress of Seed AI to AGI and
perhaps beyond. If I am right, then you will see increasingly more
ambitious Darpa AI project announcements in years 2003, 2004 and 2005.

Currently Cycorp the company is behaving as though my prediction is on

If I am wrong, then Seed AI and AGI will be developed some other way and
we can observe/discuss events as they unfold.


Stephen L. Reed                  phone:  512.342.4036
Cycorp, Suite 100                  fax:  512.342.4040
3721 Executive Center Drive      email:
Austin, TX 78731                   web:
         download OpenCyc at

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