From: Christian L. (n95lundc@hotmail.com)
Date: Thu May 23 2002 - 10:09:12 MDT
>From: Stephen Reed <reed@cyc.com>
> > Yes, I can see the arguments right now: "If it took like 50 years to get
>to
> > almost-human-level AI it must be at least another 200 years to get even
> > close to superintelligence..."
>
>I would say that the recent experience of Y2K shows how awareness can be
>propagated by opinion makers and decision makers when scientific evidence
>points to a future high-impact event.
>
>Consider the impact of superhuman AGI, as you all have been doing here,
>it is simply stunning -- changing everything. At the very least
>accounting firms will have to prepare business managers for the tremendous
>increase in productivity, and the great reduction in labor cost as a
>percent of global output.
Personally, my intuition is that such preparations would be as helpful as
preparing for a ground zero nuclear blast by crawling under your desk. I
think changes will be so profound that all you can do to prepare for the
post-singularity life (if you are not working on AI that is) is to just wait
and see.
>Suppose that respected scientists are
>making consensus forecasts that super human AGI is going to happen within
>five more years. Given our Y2K experience, every company, every
>government, every institution will have to prepare.
Again, how do you prepare for the unknown (or even unknowable)? I think most
people would get very scared when faced with the unknown. The most likely
reactions is IMO either apathy or panic.
Regards,
/Christian
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