From: Dani Eder (danielravennest@yahoo.com)
Date: Tue May 14 2002 - 12:42:12 MDT
I have a couple of projections that I use.
The first is based on the idea that progress
is proportional to the total thinking power
on the Planet.
We start by assuming the human brain
is worth 10^17 bits/sec of processing power
plus or minus a factor of 100. Annual
cpu production is equivalent to 40 brains
currently on that basis. When it gets to
a 10^7 brain-equivalents a year, the thinking
power on the planet starts to curve upward
rapidly. On a one year/doubling for computer
power, that's 18 years +- 7, or 2020AD+-7 years.
The second is based on the idea that progress
is proportional to the smartest thinking AI.
The smartest AI is assumed to be a combination
of hardware speed and time spent 'learning',
building it's internal information structures.
For example, a one brain human takes ~20 years
to accumulate enough information to be a useful
thinker. The singularity point is then 2 years
after a ~10 brain machine becomes available for
AI research, assuming a 1 year Moore's Law.
Taking the 100th machine on the TOP500 supercomputer
list as a proxy for 'available for AI research',
That projects a date of 2025 for the singularity
+-7 years.
Averaging the above results and knocking off 1/3
for continuing reduction in the doubling time
for computer power, I would make a personal
projection of 14 years +-5 years.
Daniel
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