From: Mike & Donna Deering (deering9@mchsi.com)
Date: Tue May 14 2002 - 09:41:11 MDT
>"Flaming monkeys will fly out of my butt!"
>"This is madness!"
Well, I can see this is going to take a little more explaining. Almost
every major advance in science and technology was discovered/developed near
simultaneously by more than one researcher, some of whom didn't even know
about the other's work. Patent rights are very often awarded based on the
difference of a few days, sometimes even hours. Nobel prizes are given to
multiple recipients frequently due to identical or closely related work by
independent researchers. The advance of technology is very regular. The
more independent teams working increases the regularity. The more economic
potential increases the number of independent teams. There are very many
teams working on this problem. You look around and say, "Where are they?"
Working in secret, because everyone wants to be first. Look at the cloning
of Dolly. Every authority on biomedical research was surprised to learn
that the Roslin Institute had cloned Dolly. They didn't know. More basic
science in the fields of computer science, nanotechnology, and AI has come
out of IBM than any other single place in the world. IBM has the resources
to have 50 Novamente projects going on in secret. You think the Deep Blue
II beating Garry was a parlor trick? I happen to be a chess master and I
can tell you that what happened there was amazing. It is often sited the
billions of moves per second that DB was checking, as if it beat Garry by
pure brute force. Garry went into that match knowing that you can't beat
Garry that way. Garry threw a fit and accused the IBM team of cheating.
Why? Because DB thought beyond the board, simulating Garry himself, and
used a psychological ploy to trick Garry into making a bad move and losing
the game. There was much more going on in that program than chess. And I
wouldn't count Bill Gates out either. M$ has it's own AI research
department which they claim is doing GOFAI. It probably is doing some of
that along with the real work. Nor would I discount Japan, Australia, and
fifty universities around the world. Underground AI is BIG BIG BIG! I like
Kurzweil's charts because they are data points and not as subject to
conservativization. But his formula is purposely biased to the future. I
think he knows it's coming in 2005 but doesn't want anyone else to know.
His prediction of 2005 - 2030 is to make people think it is longer while
preserving his ability to not be proven wrong. He wants to a let people
that would be in favor of the Singularity know that it is coming but he
doesn't want to alert the enemy how soon. What would happen in January of
2005 if CNN, started broadcasting that experts predicted the Singularity in
four months? Mass panic.
Prediction: April 28, 2005.
Mike.
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