From: Brian Atkins (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Date: Fri Apr 26 2002 - 20:01:44 MDT
Dani Eder wrote:
> The following hypotheses can explain these
> A) Civilization formation is extraordinarily rare, on
> the order of 1 in
> the entire universe.
> B) Conditions only became favorable to civilizations
> recently. (i.e. 2nd
> generation stars required to create suitable planets).
> C) Civilizations don't survive at a high tech level
> long enough to fill the universe.
> D) Civilizations don't stay in a form we can observe.
> E) Civilizations have been observed, but we don't
> recognize them as such.
> F) The fraction of civilizations that is expansionary
> is low.
> There may be additional hypotheses I haven't listed,
> or some combination
> of them may be the right answer.
I think D & E should be eliminated because: I know that if I had enough
technology to either leave the Universe or make my civilization so
advanced that it would seem to disappear, I would first before doing
that create and send out an armada of self replicating smart probes into
space to seek out and help all other life forms in the Universe. The
only way to keep D & E on your list is to posit that none of the aliens
out there do this for some unknown reason.
Also F should not be "low", but "zero". It only takes one.
I think A & B have been eliminated AFAIK by known physics and other science.
That leaves C or "we live in a simulation" or other unpleasantness I think.
-- Brian Atkins Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence http://www.intelligence.org/
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