From: Dmitriy Myshkin (DMyshkin@n2bb.com)
Date: Mon Dec 03 2001 - 13:43:37 MST
I agree that I don't foresee ancestral simulations existing in any form
in a Friendly-based transhumanity; I also don't foresee ancestral
simulations being any sort necessity (one could argue desirability for
any number of possible motives) in said transhumanist future.
Thus, I disagree fully with point (3) which indicates the high
probability of life within a simulation.
Dmitriy
>>>
To be more clear: while Friendly scenarios are one "singleton" outcome
that
supports the simulation stats, strictly speaking simulation (second
order) is
apparently out-of-scope for Eli's def. of Friendly. (I would argue that
Friendly
is in some sense neccessarily a de novo or first-order simulation.)
Regardless,
even for loose defs of Friendly, it would seem that the majority of
singleton
outcomes are non-Friendly.
This isn't a particularly ominous thing, IMO --- it speaks to something
inherently
at odds between the current canonical definition of "Friendly" and the
actual
survival imperatives of a transhumanist civilization. It's interesting
to
consider Tipler --- however "whacked" he may be --- and ask how one
would
reconstitute civilization in order to perpetually enable the required
activities
needed to achieve effective immortality in a Tipler-esque universe.
jb
Jeff Bone wrote:
> Nick Bostrom wrote:
>
> > Eliezer wrote:
> >
> > >I can't say that I recall ancestral simulations playing any
> > >significant part in most transhumanist scenarios. Personally I
always
> > >thought it would be a horrible thing to do even if possible and
> > >permitted. A Friendly SI outcome does not allow for nonconsensual
> > >simulations, and most ancestral simulations would presumably fall
into
> > >that category.
>
> Perhaps the fact that the numbers favor simulation speaks to the
likelihood of
> a Friendly SI outcome.
>
> jb
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