RE: Hardware Progress

From: Peter Voss (
Date: Sat Jun 23 2001 - 14:32:44 MDT

Hear, Hear

Apart from Kurzweil's own figures & arguments, a good case can be made that
we already have more than enough (total) hardware today - provided we don't
try copy the brain synapse by synapse.

A number of supporting arguments are in my notes for Extro

In addition, Kurzweil's graphs tend to focus $1000 machines. A credible
design for Real AI could mobilize a lot more resources.

Hardware is *not* the problem. Good theory & software design are. - Any and all feedback welcome:

 -----Original Message-----
> Kurzweil estimates that "supercomputers will achieve one human brain
capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020."

And yet he also points out in recent presentations that it may be possible
to implement human-equivalent functionality using 1000 times less "power" in
computers. He gives an example of the auditory

Do you ever get the feeling there is a bit of cognitive dissonance there
with him? He seems to want to have a human-centric future, even out past
2030, yet the technology trends don't seem to point that way
when you look closely... hopefully this dissonance will lead him to a more
SL4 kind of reasoning. Or perhaps he is simply presenting a more
conservative side in public?

Brian Atkins

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